Jag jobbar med daaata

Is it possible that when today's teenagers enter the workforce -- and become tomorrow's historians, politicians and Pentagon war fighters -- that they'll have reclaimed the ability to think counterfactually? Will all those years of gaming have trained them to imagine the many different ways a crisis can evolve?

Frågar sig Wired.

Niall Ferguson, supertjärnehistorikern, har bara gott att säga om hur nyttiga dataspel är för historiker. Det har han upptäckt efter att ha spelat Making History, ett krigsspel som bygger på historiskt grundade scenarier.

As he played it, he realized the game was good -- so good, in fact, that it forced him to rethink some of his long-cherished theories. For example, he'd often argued that World War II could have been prevented if Britain had confronted Germany over its invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938. France would have joined with Britain, he figured, pinching Germany between their combined might and that of the Russian army. "Germany wasn't ready for war, and they would have been defeated," he figured. "War in 1938 would have been better than war in 1942."

But when he ran the simulation in Making History, everything fell to pieces. The French defected, leaving Britain's expeditionary force to fly solo -- and get crushed by Germany. His theory, as it turns out, didn't hold water. He hadn't realized that a 1938 attack would not leave Britain enough time to build the diplomatic case with France.
[...]
Ferguson discovered something that fans of war-strategy and civilization-building "god" games have realized for years: Games are a superb vehicle for thinking deeply about complex systems. After you've spent months pondering the intricacies of the weapons markets in Eve Online, or the mysteries of troop placement in Company of Heroes, you develop a Mandlebrotian appreciation of chaos dynamics -- how a single change can take a stable situation and sent it spiraling all to hell, or vice versa.

Though Ferguson couldn't figure out how to make his 1938 scenario work, there was a better expert who could: His 13-year-old son, who was a whiz at strategy games. Rather than rush out to attack Germany, his son carefully set up robust trade agreements with France first to make sure the country felt diplomatically obligated to go along with the fight. Presto: France fought, and Germany fell.

Ferguson är så imponerad att han nu ska vara med och bygga en uppföljare, som ska handla om kriget i Irak.

Tjohoo! Krigsdataspel är vår framtid!

Som om historia inte var grabbigt nog ändå.